Foldable smartphones are poised for a significant breakthrough in 2026, with analysts attributing much of this optimism to the anticipated iPhone Fold.
After experiencing uneven growth, the iphone foldable market is projected to see a substantial upswing. According to Counterpoint Research, shipments of foldable display panels are expected to increase by 46% in 2026 as Apple starts ordering components for its inaugural foldable iPhone.
IDC shares a similar perspective, forecasting a notable rise in device shipments, with both research firms indicating that the future of this category hinges on Apple’s entry. Initial foldables came with high expectations but often fell short due to durability issues and steep prices that discouraged many consumers. While the concept has evolved, it still occupies a niche market that hasn’t fully realized its initial hype, with the supply chain now gearing up for a transformation surrounding an unconfirmed Apple device.
Apple’s involvement resets market expectations
Apple has taken its time before entering the foldable space, letting competitors like Samsung and Huawei navigate early pitfalls and design flaws. Counterpoint argues this strategic timing could be advantageous, as Apple’s purchasing cycle alone may reshape the marketplace. Suppliers are gearing up for increased volumes and more sophisticated panels, as well as the surge of media attention that typically follows an Apple innovation.
Book-style foldables are likely to draw interest due to their tablet-like opening and added screen real estate, with Counterpoint predicting these designs will dominate in 2026 and elevate average display prices. Manufacturers are urged to concentrate on larger, intricate OLED displays, with Samsung Display benefiting from its extensive foldable production experience. IDC echoes a similar optimistic outlook but adopts a more cautious stance regarding the market’s evolution. Its projections link growth to Apple’s introduction, Samsung’s subsequent foldable offerings, and Huawei’s recovery in China, viewing 2026 as a transitional phase rather than a complete overhaul, suggesting that several strong players are needed to expand beyond the current narrow focus.
Divergence in IDC’s perspective
The most significant difference between the two analyses lies in the pace of the market’s transition. Counterpoint anticipates a rapid upsurge driven directly by Apple’s orders, while IDC foresees gradual progress over the coming years. By the decade’s end, foldables could represent 10% of the global smartphone market.
The firms also diverge on design trends, with Counterpoint believing book-style models will maintain their predominance while multi-fold designs remain lesser-known. In contrast, IDC sees tri-fold phones as early contributors to market growth but views them as exploratory designs aiding overall segment maturity. IDC goes further, projecting that Apple’s first foldable could capture over 20% of the unit share and about one-third of the segment’s revenue in its initial year, forecasting a price point near $2,400 for a high-end strategy rather than a mass-market approach.
A category still searching for identity
Despite Apple’s potential influence, the foldable category faces ongoing challenges. Consumers remain hesitant about fragile hinges, visible creases, and compromises on battery life. Developers are inconsistent in optimizing applications for larger and diverse layouts, limiting the appeal of the expanded screen experience. Additionally, Android grapples with issues like feature fragmentation and device compatibility.
Apple’s iphone stringent control over both hardware and software may mitigate some of these concerns, facilitating a smoother transition between phone and tablet modes. Retailers and carriers could present a clearer narrative, which might help the segment capture attention from potential customers who have previously overlooked foldables. However, Apple cannot resolve every challenge instantaneously, and foldables continue to represent a costly venture that may need years to penetrate the mainstream market fully. The next iteration must demonstrate that larger screens and innovative shapes offer real value rather than merely appealing to early adopters.
The year Apple takes the reins
Analysts foresee that the foldable market is finally on the brink of substantial expansion. Panel manufacturers are ramping up production, vendors are revising their product strategies, and expectations are shifting as forecasts become more optimistic. A successful launch of the foldable iPhone could position 2026 as the year this category transcends its current niche. Conversely, any missteps could indicate that foldables require more than just an innovative hinge to build a broader customer base.